LITTLE ROCK, Ark. — A Democratic challenger holds a razor-thin edge over a Republican incumbent in Arkansas’ U.S. Senate race, according to a new statewide poll that underscores the competitiveness of the contest months ahead of Election Day.

The Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll shows Democratic candidate Hallie Shoffner with 47.4% support among likely voters, narrowly leading Sen. Tom Cotton, who garnered 44%. Libertarian candidate Jeff Wadlin drew nearly 3% of respondents, while approximately 5.6% said they remain undecided. However, Shoffner’s 3.4-point advantage falls within the survey's margin of error, which is plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, leaving the outcome statistically uncertain.

The poll, conducted August 11-12, surveyed 1,217 likely Arkansas voters. Roby Brock, editor-in-chief of Talk Business & Politics, labeled the contest “competitive but fluid,” noting that significant campaigning and spending lie ahead. The organization plans to continue tracking the race as November approaches.

A closer look at the poll’s results highlights key divides among Arkansas voters. Shoffner received overwhelming support from Democrats, while Cotton earned backing from 82% of Republican respondents. Among independent voters, Shoffner led by a wide margin of 59% to 29%.

Gender, education, and age also factored into voter preferences. Shoffner held a 10-point edge among women (51% to 41%), while Cotton led by three percentage points among men (47% to 44%). Among voters with college degrees, Shoffner led comfortably, 63% to 29%. Cotton, however, held the advantage among those without a college education, leading 51% to 40%.

Older voters favored Cotton: he earned 57% support among those aged 65 and older, a 22-point advantage over Shoffner. The candidates were evenly matched among those aged 45 to 64, while Shoffner performed particularly well with voters younger than 45.

Robert Coon of the Impact Management Group, which works with Republican candidates, and Jay Barth, a Hendrix College emeritus professor affiliated with Democratic politics, collaborated on the poll's design and analysis. Both linked voter preferences in the Senate race to attitudes toward former President Donald Trump. Among respondents, 48% strongly disapproved of Trump’s job performance, a group that favored Shoffner by 94%.

Coon noted that Cotton continues to perform strongly in Arkansas’ rural areas, which remain critical to his reelection chances. Despite Shoffner’s focus on agricultural issues, county-level data did not show gains for her in rural regions. Barth emphasized Shoffner’s strength among Democrats and her nearly two-to-one lead with independents as driving factors behind her slim statewide lead.

The poll collected responses via text message and applied slight weighting adjustments for gender, ethnicity, education, and geographic distribution. The margin of error pertains to the overall sample; results for smaller subsets of voters are less precise.

As campaigning intensifies, the poll suggests an increasingly competitive race in a state where Cotton has traditionally enjoyed strong support.